Projection: Illinois Will Set All-Time State Handle Record In March 2022, But Fall Shy Of $1 Billion In Sports Bets

In March 2021, mobile sports betting in Illinois achieved a record by processing $633.6 million in bets, a remarkable amount that exceeded expectations.

We anticipate seeing substantial growth in March 2022. In-person registration will no longer be available after March 5th, and at least one new operator, BetMGM Sportsbook, will be launching.

Since April, others will have the opportunity to electronically attract new clients for the first time.

This situation in the emerging US sports betting market is unprecedented. Although other states have allowed in-person registration, Illinois stands out due to its frequent changes. Notably, Illinois had a unique seven-month period of online registration in 2020-21, a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, further distinguishing it from other states.

As a result, predicting the future is a highly difficult task. Will there be a notable increase in sports betting in March as COVID restrictions are lifted? Or is the excitement overblown since bookmakers have not been able to sign up online customers since April? Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

This is our educated guess on the outcomes that can be expected from sports betting apps in Illinois next month.

Not quite$ 1 billion, but still impressive

The March handle is expected to be close to $900 million, falling just short of the $1 billion milestone, but still serving as a notable indicator of performance.

We can make better March Madness betting predictions by analyzing Super Bowl betting numbers from previous years.

In 2021, Illinois residents bet $45.6 million on the popular game, which increased to $60.5 million in 2022, showing a growth of around 25%.

By increasing the March 2021 figure of $633.6 million by 25%, we would reach around $791 million. It is important to note that online registration for IL casinos will be available starting March 5. While it is unclear how much more revenue Wine will be able to handle beyond $791 million, it should be equipped to manage the increase.

Nevertheless, there are specific ideas that influence our point of view. Barstool first launched in Illinois on March 11 of the preceding year, and during that month, it accumulated approximately $49 million in wagers.

It appears that BetMGM is poised to surpass or even exceed Barstool’s current amount upon its launch.

Anticipating an increase in Barstool’s handle is reasonable, considering their typical monthly figures of $56 million reported in December. With only three weeks to register users online, significantly less time than other live operators, a surge in Barstool activity is expected in March.

Caesars, a subsidiary of William Hill, also experiences the same reality, albeit to a lesser extent. When it first launched in Illinois in September 2020, it was going through a product transition. However, in the post-IPR era, the company is anticipated to become much more prominent.

By adding individuals who have never downloaded DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, and PointsBet, as well as newcomers to the state, we estimate our total revenue to reach $900 million.

How would this affect tax revenue and technician income?

In March of last year, casinos brought in a total revenue of $49.8 million, resulting in approximately $7 million in state and local tax revenue.

The operator’s winning rate is currently 7.9%. If this trend continues in 2022, the operator is projected to generate $70.7 million in revenue, with an estimated $9.9 million in state and local taxes.

Even though the handle number reached record levels, the actual revenue figures were not realized until November 2021, when sportsbooks generated $11.9 million.

Sometimes one book excels over another, while other times it is the opposite. As we look ahead to this year’s NCAA Tournament, we may not be able to give our best performance.

One thing that is clear is that the sports gambling industry in Illinois is poised for further growth, as evidenced by recent in-person registrations.