Projection: Illinois Will Set All-Time State Handle Record In March 2022, But Fall Shy Of $1 Billion In Sports Bets

In March 2021, mobile sportsbooks in Illinois set a record at the time by handling $633.6 million in bets, a figure that seemed extravagant.

Indeed, we expect to witness significant growth in March 2022. The in-person registration will be discontinued after March 5, and at a minimum, one new operator, BetMGM Sportsbook, is set to launch.

Others will have the chance to find new clients electronically for the first time since April.

This is a unique situation in the nascent, legal US sports betting market. While there have been instances of in-person membership in other states, the constant changes set Illinois apart. You might remember that due to COVID-19, there were about seven months of online registration in 2020 – 21, which further differentiates Illinois.

Consequently, forecasting the future is extremely challenging. Are we going to witness a significant surge in sports betting in March due to the easing of in-person restrictions? Or is the hype exaggerated considering that bookmakers haven’t been able to register customers online since April? Or is the reality somewhere in between?

This is our informed prediction regarding the kind of results that sports betting apps in Illinois will yield next month.

Not quite$ 1 billion, but still impressive

The March handle is anticipated to be set around $900 million. While it would not reach the $1 billion mark, it would still serve as a significant status report.

Our March Madness betting prediction can be informed by using year-over-year Super Bowl betting numbers.

In 2021, Illinois residents wagered $45.6 million on the great game. This figure rose to $60.5 million, representing an increase of approximately 25%, in 2022.

If we increase the March 2021 figure of $633.6 million by 25%, we would reach approximately $791 million. However, we also need to consider that from March 5, online registration for IL casinos will be possible. It’s uncertain how much more than $791 million Wine will be able to manage, but it should be capable of handling it.

However, there are certain concepts that shape our perspective. Barstool made its debut in Illinois on March 11 of the previous year. Throughout that month, it amassed around $49 million in bets.

It seems that BetMGM will likely surpass Barstool’s current amount upon its launch, if not exceed it.

We should anticipate an increase in Barstool’s handle, based on their typical monthly figures ($56 million reported in December). Given that they only had three weeks to register users online, a significantly less time than all other live operators, a surge in activity for Barstool is expected in March.

William Hill’s Caesars also shares the same truth, though perhaps to a lesser degree. Upon its initial launch in Illinois in September 2020, it was amidst a product transition. However, in the post-IPR era, the company is expected to gain significantly more prominence.

Include those who never downloaded DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers and PointsBet, along with newcomers to the state, and we arrive at our projected $900 million.

How would this affect tax revenue and technician income?

Last year in March, casinos made a revenue of $49.8 million. Consequently, around $7 million was generated in state and local tax dollars.

The operator’s hold rate stood at 7.9%. If this rate of winning persists for sportsbooks in 2022, the operator’s revenue will amount to $70.7 million, with state and local taxes expected to reach $9.9 million.

Despite the record-setting handle number, the actual figures didn’t materialize until November 2021, when sportsbooks generated a revenue of $11.9 million.

At times, one book outperforms another and sometimes it’s the other way around. In relation to this year’s NCAA Tournament, we can’t put forth our best effort.

However, what is certain is that the sports gambling industry in Illinois is on the brink of another expansion. It has indeed been registered in person.