When wagering on sports, many people often start by asking a basic question: Who is the home team? After determining this, traditional thinking implies that the home team has a significant advantage.

The topic of home-field advantage is intensely discussed in sports betting communities. This has become increasingly true now that legalization is being established in an expanding number of states, including our own home state of Illinois.

Is there a benefit for the home team? If yes, what value does it hold in terms of betting? We will be addressing these queries and much more as we delve into the concept of home-field advantage.

What is the home field advantage?

In team sports, there are occasional matches at neutral venues. However, mostly, games have a standard format: one team plays on their home ground, while the other team has to travel to join in the game.

The term “home-field advantage” alludes to the inherent upper hand a team is believed to have when playing on their home ground. This advantage is attributed to the convenience of not needing to travel and the comfort of playing in a well-known environment. Conversely, the situation is different for the visiting team.

In a game where the stands are filled with fans rooting for the home team, there could be an even greater advantage. Considering home-field advantage is crucial when predicting game outcomes, however, not all home teams are equally competitive.

Why do some teams perform better at home than others?

As the regular sports season progresses, certain trends will become apparent. The elite teams will ascend to the top, the less successful ones will sink toward the bottom, and all other teams will compete for a middle ground position.

From a gambling standpoint, the story remains the same. You’ll come across teams that are strong when betting against the spread or on over/under, while others are weak in both areas. Similar patterns can also emerge when examining team records in home or away games.

Some teams will have a more distinct advantage over their visiting competitors than others. This could be because they are one of the top-performing teams of the year, or it could be due to a significant home crowd presence.

As a result, some venues are traditionally more challenging for visiting teams to play in. Take for instance, the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks home games at CenturyLink Field, or the Duke Blue Devils’ college basketball games at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Aside from the noise from the crowd, factors like travel situations, for instance, a team from the East Coast traveling to the West or the opposite, or a tendency for decisions to favor the home team, could also come into play. What could be the possible effects on each of the main sports? Let’s examine this, along with some key statistics on home advantage.

Home field advantage, by sports

This is an analysis of how home field advantage impacts different sports:

How it works in NFL

The NFL, being the main highlight of sports betting, garners a significant amount of attention. The potential advantage for the home team is often a major topic of conversation in the lead-up to individual games.

During the regular season, 256 games are played over a span of 17 weeks. Here is a breakdown of how the teams performed during the 2019 campaign:

• Home Team Record: 132-123-1
• The home team won 51.8% of the total games.

In 2019, home teams had a slight advantage, winning just over half of the games. However, it’s important to note that this data is based on a single year, which is a relatively small sample size. The advantage of playing at home might be more significant in other years.

Generally, home teams in NFL games have a slight edge. However, this advantage is significantly more noticeable when the home team is one of the top teams in the league. Here are several other key factors to ponder when wagering on NFL games:

• Weather: The key factor to monitor is teams from typically hotter climates who are visiting for a game in colder weather.
• Does this venue typically have an energetic fanbase, or does the home team not provide much inspiration?
• Game Time: The effects might be felt by a Western team traveling east for an early kickoff, whereas an Eastern team heading west for a late start might be off-balance.

How it works in NBA

Teams that play more frequently are part of the NBA. They often go on road trips, and it’s definitely beneficial to analyze how the home court might influence the games you intend to bet on. In the regular season of 2018-19, this was the performance record of home teams:

• Home Team Record: 729-501
• The home team won 59.3% of the total games.

Compared to the NFL, that’s a significantly larger advantage. However, it’s important to remember that this data only represents one season. There could be years where the winning percentage is closer or even lower.

The primary factors to consider when analyzing games are the overall strengths and weaknesses of the two teams. In the case of clubs that are evenly matched, a slight advantage should be given to the home side.

When it’s a game where the home team is significantly stronger, the venue could play a crucial role. However, if a strong road team is competing against a weak overall team, the advantage might be negligible. Here are additional key factors to keep in mind when betting on NBA games:

• Travel: Teams that have been playing on their home ground for some time have an advantage over clubs that have been traveling for their games.
• Rest: Examine which team has any rest advantage during difficult stretches of the NBA season, such as when teams are playing three games over four nights.
• Keep Track of the Venue: In the NBA, clubs frequently visit each other. Therefore, it’s important to check their performance at the present venue during their last five to ten visits.

How it works in MLB

During the regular season, Major League Baseball (MLB) teams face off in a series of two to four games. They do not switch places between games, but have the option to travel either before or after the series commences. The 2019 performance record for home teams was as follows:

• Home Team Record: 1286-1143
• The home team won 52.9% of the total games.

In this particular season, the home team held a minor advantage. However, it’s important to reiterate that these figures can fluctuate from season to season. Some seasons may see a more balanced outcome, while others may witness home teams triumphing 53%-54% of the time, as an example.

In conducting your research, examine the performance of the visiting team at this ballpark historically. Reviewing the results of the last five to 10 games may suffice, but you can also delve deeper and study trends over the past few years. When placing bets on baseball, consider the following factors related to home field advantage:

• Weather: Apart from likely rainfall, consider wind and temperature as they significantly influence the trajectory of a baseball in flight.
• Park Classification: Certain ballparks are designed to favor pitchers, while others are a paradise for hitters. Remember this when you’re evaluating lineups and totals.
• Upcoming Challenges: Although daily traveling is not required for MLB teams, road trips can still be exhausting, as can the impending events.

How it works in NHL

The compact nature of an NHL arena can generate a considerable buzz across the venue. This can significantly impact the unfolding of events, especially in close matches and situations where a team is attempting to make a comeback. Looking back at the 2018-19 season, here’s the performance of the home team:

• Home Team Record: 682-445-144
• The home team won 53.7% of the total games.

This single season sample size’s advantage is slightly larger than what we observe in MLB, but significantly smaller than the NBA. However, we’ll regard it as significantly larger for the top teams, and considerably smaller for the lesser performing teams in the league.

No matter how strong the two teams are, it’s crucial to bear in mind that unexpected outcomes can occur at any moment. Ideally, while handicapping, you’ll be able to spot such potential upsets. Here are some additional factors to consider when betting on NHL games, especially when it comes to home ice:

• Travel: Similar to the NBA, the NHL season also allows teams to have extended periods either on the road or at home. Therefore, examine the specifics of the games you are analyzing.
• Rest: The impact of rest can be significant in the NHL, for instance, when a fully rested team playing at home faces a traveling team that’s playing their second game in three days.
• Venue Performance Record: Teams often excel in certain areas while struggling in others, therefore, it’s advisable to evaluate the performance of visiting teams at the specific venue over the past 5-10 games.

How it works in MLS

Interest in betting on MLS matches is on the rise, and the ability to place legal and secure bets in a number of states is only bolstering this trend. In terms of home-field events, here are the occurrences of the 2019 season:

• Home Team Record: 213-103-92
• The home team won 52.2% of total games.

Here, the benefit might not be substantial, but draws are quite frequent in MLS. If we combine victories and draws, the home team achieved one of these two outcomes in a remarkable 74.8% of the matches. Here are some additional factors to consider regarding the home field advantage in MLS:

• Goal Differential: Some teams significantly outperform others when playing on their home turf. Therefore, it’s important to analyze the goal differential for teams when they are playing at home versus when they are away.
• Travel and Rest: The same elements we consider in other sports are also applicable to MLS, including lengthy away games and any benefits derived from rest periods.
• Venue’s Historical Performance: The reality of teams performing well in certain venues and poorly in others is undeniable, so ensure you examine it.

How it works with college football

Much of the spectacle and custom of college football is associated with its fanbases. Certain environments can be incredibly boisterous and potentially daunting for visiting teams. This is what the hosting teams accomplished during the regular 2019 season:

• Home Team Record: 541-287
• The home team won 65.3% of the total games.

That’s a significantly greater advantage than what we’ve observed in the other team sports we’ve examined. While it’s just for one year, having over 65% of the winners is not something to disregard.

When betting on college football, remember there can be significant mismatches in the schedule, such as top-tier programs playing against smaller schools that stand little chance. This can greatly influence the odds. Here are additional key factors to consider:

• Team Strength: Powerhouse programs possess a significant home advantage. This is also true for solid teams, but much less so for those at the bottom.
• Fanbase: Like all other sports, some stadiums are noticeably more raucous than others, particularly when the home team is enjoying an outstanding season.
• Weather: Teams playing outside their usual conditions— from warm to cold, or vice versa — may find their performance affected by the weather.

How it works with college basketball

The principles that are applicable to college football can also be applied to college basketball. The NCAAB boasts of extremely enthusiastic fanbases, which can be even more influential in the compact setting of a basketball arena. Below are the home team records for the 2018-19 season:

• Home Team Record: 3609-1728
• The home team won 67.8% of the total games.

This is the highest score we’ve encountered so far, but keep in mind it only pertains to one year. Similar to college football, the schedule outside of conference play can include some mismatches, potentially distorting the numbers. Below are some additional key factors to consider regarding the NCAAB home-court advantage:

• Team Strength: When teams are evenly matched, the home court advantage is less significant. However, when there is a large difference in team strengths, the home court advantage can play a major role.
• Fanbase: Similar to NCAAF, the enthusiasm level of some fanbases can greatly exceed others. This can result in smaller basketball arenas becoming incredibly loud.
• Travel: The major considerations apply to long journeys, yet those who manage to secure additional time at home naturally have an advantage.

Is home field advantage factored into betting odds?

When the conversation shifts to home field, it is one of the primary topics. Do oddsmakers include the home field in their calculations, or should you adjust the betting lines to account for it?

Yes, Illinois sportsbooks do consider the home field advantage when setting their numbers, along with all other potential variables. In essence, a strong home favorite might receive an additional boost due to being in familiar territory. However, this impact might not be as significant if the away team is also one of the superior teams.

When a weak away team competes against a strong home team, the odds may significantly favor the home team. However, the odds may favor the away team if the roles are reversed. While the home field advantage is considered in sports betting odds, it’s still crucial to determine its potential impact.

Another tip to remember is to monitor team performance both at home and away, evaluating their performance against the spread and totals in both scenarios. This could give additional insights into how teams may perform in relation to the betting lines you’re analyzing.

How much is home field advantage worth in sports betting?

So, suppose you’re trying to understand a point spread and visualize the matchup at a neutral venue. What value should you assign to the home field? To clarify, let’s go through the procedure for basketball and football, the two most commonly bet-on sports in spread betting.

The influence of home court in basketball can differ between professional and amateur levels. In the NBA, it is generally accepted that home court advantage equates to an additional 2.5 to 3.0 points. However, this increases slightly in NCAAB with home court advantage equating to 3.0 to 3.5 points.

This implies that if you’re establishing your lines or employing a power ranking system, this figure should be used as a baseline for the home team. Given that all other variables remain constant, an NBA team would typically have a 2.5-3.0 point advantage at home, whereas it would be a 3.0-3.5 point advantage for NCAAB teams.

In football, both in the NFL and NCAAF, the typical home field advantage is often quantified as a field goal, equivalent to 3.0 points, in favor of the home team. However, historical analysis suggests that this figure may be inflated in some instances, while being understated in others.

Consequently, certain handicappers have adopted a 2.5 figure for the football home field, while some have even gone below this. For particularly potent home teams, the number could be adjusted upwards to a maximum of 3.5 points. Many bettors also opt for a standard number, like 2.3 for football or 2.8 for basketball, and apply it universally.

For a swift and simple solution, it’s advisable to begin on the lower end for both sports and tweak as necessary. If there isn’t much disparity between the two competing teams, then the lesser home advantage factor should suffice. However, if there’s a clear upper hand for a home team playing against a weaker opponent, the higher end of the scale may be appropriate.

What to remember about home field advantage

In team sports, there is usually a home team and a visiting team. It is widely recognized that the team that doesn’t have to travel has a minor advantage entering the competition.

The amount of edge to be applied is a highly debated subject in the realm of sports betting. Our exploration of seven major sports shows that the home team typically won more frequently in a recent season.

The difference in winning percentage for home teams was most notable in NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB, but was slightly less pronounced in other sports. However, these figures may be somewhat distorted on the college level due to potential mismatches in the schedule.

In every sport, the home team always has some level of advantage, which can fluctuate based on the strengths of the competing teams. When a top-ranking team in a league is playing on home ground, they are likely to have a greater advantage, especially when faced with a weaker opponent.

When teams are evenly matched, the advantage isn’t as significant, and powerful road teams can lessen the disadvantage. Simply put, although the home field should be included in the overall evaluation, it should not be the sole factor considered when assessing games.