How To Spot March Madness Upsets
How To Spot March Madness Upsets
March Madness is one of the few events that not only captivate the sporting world but also the general public. It is one of the most significant betting events of the year.
With the activation of online sportsbooks, residents of Illinois are now legally and safely capable of placing bets on the March Madness action. They can do this right from the comfort of their own sofa, while watching the games and upsets unfold.
Numerous theories exist about predicting March Madness upsets, and many questions surround the correct strategy. A common question that often arises is: How does one identify potential upsets before they occur?
In this comprehensive guide, we will highlight the most frequently occurring types of upsets and what you should be aware of. We will also delve into everything else you need to understand about one of the most significant sporting events of the year. Let’s dive in.
How does March Madness work?
The annual NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Tournament is commonly referred to as March Madness. The name’s “March” aspect refers to the tournament’s timing, which occurs over several intense weeks within that month. “Madness” alludes to the unpredictable, non-stop basketball action where anything is possible.
The origins of the tournament can be traced back to 1939 when Oregon emerged victorious against Ohio State in the first edition, which had only eight teams participating. Over the years, the tournament has seen significant expansion in terms of participating teams, mirroring the increased interest in the event. As of today, 68 teams are invited to participate in the tournament.
If any of the 32 schools win their conference, their ticket is punched. The NCAA D1 Men’s Basketball Selection Committee selects the other 36 teams, known as at-large bids. The committee scrutinizes a wealth of data, including records and schedule strength, to decide which teams merit an invitation.
There are 350 teams competing at the D1 level in college basketball, making it impossible to satisfy everyone. Even if you narrow the competition down to the top 20-25% of teams, there’s always controversy about those who didn’t make the cut. Nonetheless, the committee strives to guarantee that only the cream of the crop get to participate in March Madness.
March Madness seeding and brackets
Determining which teams qualify for the tournament is merely a fragment of the committee’s responsibilities. They also have to organize the tournament bracket. Besides serving as the foundation for numerous competitions, the bracket also outlines the overall schedule of the tournament.
The tournament field is segmented into four sections: East, South, Midwest, and West. Each of these sections will comprise 16 teams, ranked from 1-16, making a total of 64 teams. So, where do the remaining four teams fit in?
The First Four, established in 2011, was designed to allow more teams a chance to participate. In this setup, eight teams are matched for four games, with the victors progressing to complete the bracket in each division. For the 16 teams in each category, here is how the first round seed matchups appear.
- 1 vs. 16
- 2 vs. 15
- 3 vs. 14
- 4 vs. 13
- 5 vs. 12
- 6 vs. 11
- 7 vs. 10
- 8 vs. 9
The tournament operates on a single-elimination basis. Victors proceed to the subsequent round, whereas the defeated participants return home to view the remainder of March Madness with everyone else. Below is the tournament’s layout, including the quantity of games per round.
- Opening Round: 4
- First round: 32
- Second round: 16
- Sweet 16: 8
- Elite Eight: 4
- Final Four: 2
- National Title: 1
Over a thrilling three-week period, 67 games will take place. The penultimate matches are referred to as the Final Four, and the concluding match is termed the National Championship game. These three competitions are among the most wagered on in all sports throughout the year, and the preceding March Madness games also draw a considerable amount of basketball betting activity.
Which seeds perform the best at March Madness?
The field of teams for March Madness was expanded to 64 in 1985 and has subsequently increased to 68. Over three decades of action has resulted in a wealth of data to analyze. Here are some key points to take into account.
- Out of 70 possible Final Four spots, a #11 seed was the lowest to have advanced to that stage, which happened four times.
- It’s hard to dispute the win rates of the teams seeded 1-4 in the first round. The team seeded number 1 has a win rate of 99%, followed by the team seeded number 2 with 94%, the third-seeded team with 85%, and the fourth-seeded team with 79%.
- In the first round, teams seeded 5-7 win 61-64% of the time. However, the winning percentage decreases to 50% for seeds 8-9, similar to a coin toss. For teams seeded 10th and below, the winning percentage falls further to 39% or less.
- Seeds 14 to 16 frequently don’t make it past the first round. The victory rate of these seeds in opening games is: 15% for seed 14, 6% for seed 15, and 1% for seed 16.
The narrative remains the same as you progress through the rounds. The four highest seeds have the highest winning percentages, with success rates declining beyond that. Out of the 70 possible title game spots, 61 have been occupied by seeds 1-4.
The team with the lowest seeding to reach the final was #8, a feat achieved three times. In essence, if you intend to bet against the high-seeds in March Madness, ensure you’ve constructed a robust argument for it.
How can you spot upsets at March Madness?
March Madness experiences upsets every year, which adds to the excitement unless you are part of the defeated team. These upsets can completely ruin your chances of winning a bracket contest. However, if you are able to predict some of these upsets beforehand, it can significantly benefit your performance. Here are some guidelines to help you identify potential upsets.
- Analyze the game pairings: In order to detect surprising outcomes, it’s crucial to delve into the games and identify possible matchup complications. For instance, a team with a robust defense but a weaker overall record could hinder the progress of a highly rated team with an exceptional record. Generally, you are on the lookout for circumstances that could pose challenges for the preferred team.
- Rewrite: Assess recent performance: Which is more favorable: a team going into the tournament on a three-game losing streak or a squad on a seven-game winning run? The latter is the clear choice, but this isn’t something you can determine solely from overall records. Therefore, as part of your analysis, consider recent streaks and the overall records from the last 10 games for both teams.
- When evaluating matchups, examine whether there has been any overlap of adversaries encountered during the regular season and analyze the outcomes. Additionally, invest some time to inspect the intensity of the schedule. For instance, a preferred team with an impressive record might have achieved it by capitalizing on weaker opponents.
When searching for NCAA March Madness upsets, it’s crucial to maintain realistic expectations. The underdog school can occasionally triumph over the dominant program, but only under perfect conditions. Rely on your research and feel free to select some underdogs, but avoid the lure of grasping at straws.
5 of the biggest March Madness upsets of all-time
In 1985, when the March Madness field first escalated to include 64 teams, it ended with a shocking result. The final match saw the #8 seed Villanova triumph over the much-favored #1 seed Georgetown Hoyas, winning the championship.
Though that game is frequently cited as the greatest upset in March Madness history, numerous other surprising outcomes have occurred over the years. Let’s revisit five of the most astonishing upsets in history.
1. 2018: #16 UMBC over #1 Virginia
The only instance in March Madness where a #16 seed triumphed over a #1 seed was when UMBC beat Virginia. Despite being one of the favorites in the tournament, Virginia was outplayed by UMBC. This was not merely an upset, rather, it was a significant victory for the underdogs, with a score of 74-54.
2. 2013: #15 Florida Gulf Coast over #2 Georgetown
Florida Gulf Coast shocked Georgetown with a 78-68 victory in the first round, but they weren’t finished. This underdog team advanced to the Sweet 16 before their fairy tale run ended.
3. 2012: #15 Lehigh over #2 Duke
The respected Blue Devils experienced a first-round fall here, succumbing to Lehigh. Duke faced another stunning upset in 2014 as a #3 seed when Mercer defeated them.
4. 1991: #15 Richmond over #2 Syracuse
The tournament witnessed a historic first victory for a #15 seed. Syracuse, one of the top contenders to win the tournament, had their hopes dashed dramatically with a memorable 73-69 loss to Richmond.
5. 1986: #14 Cleveland State over #3 Indiana
No one expected an upset from a lesser opponent while the legendary Bobby Knight was still at the helm in Indiana. However, against all odds, Cleveland State pulled off a surprise 73-69 victory, advancing them to the second round.
Lowest-seeded teams to Make Final Four
Since the expansion of March Madness in 1985, most of the Final Four spots have been occupied by the top-four seeded teams. Occasionally, teams seeded 5-8 have made appearances, but beyond that, the representation significantly decreases.
Over that period, only six teams ranked lower than an 8th seed have reached the Final Four. Let’s take a brief look at these teams and their performance.
- In 1986, #11 LSU lost to Louisville in the semi-final.
- In 2006, #11 George Mason was defeated by Florida in the semi-final.
- In 2011, #11 VCU lost to Butler in the semi-final.
- In 2013, #9 Wichita State lost to Louisville in the semi-final.
- In 2016, #10 Syracuse lost to North Carolina in the semi-final.
- In 2018, #11 Loyola-Chicago lost to Michigan in the semi-final.
Online betting rules for March Madness in Illinois
Every sportsbook operating in Illinois has its own unique set of house rules for college basketball betting. Although many rules regarding settlement, placement, and other conditions are standardized throughout the industry, there might be some variations in specific areas. Below are the key points you should be aware of.
- Wagers become active at the beginning of the game. If there’s a delay, your bet could still be valid if the game is finished within a reasonable timeframe. However, if the game is completely cancelled, all bets will be nullified and your money will be refunded.
- Official tournament results and statistics form the basis for all bet settlements.
- Wagers will be voided and refunded if the tournament is cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.
- Wagers on spreads and totals that are settled precisely on the number listed at the time of betting will be considered a push, and betting amounts will be refunded.
This encompasses most of what you need to be aware of, but it’s important to note that unexpected issues may arise. Therefore, it’s advisable to spend time reviewing the house rules and terms and conditions of the online and mobile sportsbooks you intend to use.
While online betting on Illinois schools is not possible, you can place bets on Loyola Chicago, Illinois, etc. at retail sportsbooks this March.
Tips for handicapping March Madness
The NCAA Men’s D1 Basketball Tournament offers numerous sports betting opportunities. With a plethora of games scheduled, the vast number can appear intimidating. However, you are not required to place bets on every single game.
Instead, adopt a calculated strategy and concentrate on the competitions where you believe there’s an advantage to be gained. Here are some extra tips to have at your disposal as you prepare to analyze the upcoming edition of March Madness.
- Keep an eye on line movement: The odds for each game in the tournament are announced well in advance of the start. From the time of initial announcement to the start of the game, these numbers will fluctuate. Be alert and analyze the hints given by these movements. Line shifts can assist you in understanding where the majority of bets are placed and which side needs more support.
- Current performance is more important than overall record: In evaluating the tournament bracket and examining team records, it’s natural to favor teams with superior overall scores. However, it’s crucial to look beyond this. Teams with impressive records could be losing momentum by dropping several of their recent games, while teams with less impressive scores might be on a winning spree.
- Focus on relevant statistics: A plethora of diverse statistics are accessible for college basketball analysis. However, absorbing all of them won’t aid in predicting winners. Rather than overwhelming yourself, concentrate on the significant factors. A few of these include: true shooting percentage, defensive efficiency, and depth of rotation.
Handicapping can aid in achieving your March Madness betting objectives, but it’s equally crucial to be aware of the pitfalls. A prime rule is to avoid going overboard. While March Madness is thrilling, it can become less enjoyable if you gamble beyond your comfort zone.
Maintain what is effective for you and establish a rigid budget. You can distribute some for each of the betting types you’re interested in. Always keep this easy rule in mind: always bet intelligently and never excessively.
What to remember about March Madness upsets
March Madness is among the most exhilarating sports events of the year, attracting a lot of gambling activity. Much of its thrill is derived from the event’s very essence.
Over the years, there have been numerous surprising upsets where underdogs have triumphed over favorites. We can confidently predict that such occurrences will continue to sporadically happen in the future.
Nonetheless, teams ranked 1-4 have consistently performed well at the tournament, making it quite difficult to identify any hidden gems. If you are trying to spot some, keep these three points in mind:
- Search for compatibility issues for more dominant teams.
- Evaluate recent games and search for underdog teams that are performing well.
- Investigate shared adversaries and the results of those competitions.
Identifying potential upsets isn’t straightforward, but thorough research can assist in predicting some March Madness surprises that others might overlook. However, maintain a balanced outlook and avoid attempting to invent scenarios that simply don’t exist.