With legal sports betting now live in Illinois, the opportunity presents itself for you to enjoy placing bets for fun and possibly even profit. Indeed, there are legitimate and legal methods to make a profit from sports wagering.

Nonetheless, all opportunities are not equally beneficial. Honestly, some bets available simply result in poor propositions for gamblers.

So, how can you determine which bets belong to this category? We will guide you on what to be vigilant about. There are certain wagers, referred to as sucker bets, which can deplete your bankroll over time.

While guessing is part of the enjoyment in sports betting, focusing too much on high-risk bets will lead to more deposits than withdrawals of winnings.

What’s a sucker bet?

To begin with, one must understand the difference: a sucker bet is not simply a wager that results in a loss. Losses are inherent in sports betting. Even the best of us will face losses, and those who assert they “never lose” are simply not telling the truth.

A sucker bet refers to a wager that, after a realistic evaluation of the odds, doesn’t seem logical. It might involve a bet where the chances of winning are as improbable as bottling lightning, or a bet where the possible return is not justified by the risk involved.

To quickly determine if a bet is a sucker bet, think about what the sportsbook would be willing to payout if you win. For instance, if there’s an opportunity to transform a small sum into thousands of dollars, the probability of that happening is probably extremely low.

Return vs. reality

To illustrate, let’s examine a multi-leg parlay where you must correctly predict each selection to win. Let’s hypothesize that your chances of making a correct prediction on each selection are 50/50. The actual odds for this wager are as follows, relative to the payout of the bet:

Parlay Size	Odds at 50% Correct	Sportsbook Odds Payout
2 legs	3 to 1	2.6 to 1
3 legs	7 to 1	6 to 1
4 legs	15 to 1	12 to 1
5 legs	31 to 1	24 to 1
6 legs	63 to 1	48 to 1
7 legs	127 to 1	92 to 1
8 legs	255 to 1	176 to 1
9 legs	511 to 1	337 to 1
10 legs	1,023 to 1	645 to 1
11 legs	2,047 to 1	1,233 to 1

It is evident that the probability of making an accurate prediction decreases with each additional selection on the betting ticket. Furthermore, the payout from the sportsbook is less than the fair value of a 50/50 bet.

There’s no harm in placing a small parlay bet for the possibility of a substantial win. However, consistently investing a considerable sum of money on an unlikely event can lead to significant losses.

How to calculate implied probability

Studying sports betting odds can provide us with a wealth of insights. A quick look at the board reveals the favorite and the underdog, but there’s more to understand. It also enables us to determine the possible return on successful bets and the sportsbook’s perceived probability of a result.

Let’s start with the latter, also commonly known as implied probability. As an illustration, we will discuss a basic college football moneyline bet where one team is a significant favorite:

Boston College +450

Notre Dame -500

According to the predictions of the oddsmakers, the Fighting Irish have a strong advantage over BC. So, what does this imply about the probability of one team’s victory over the other? Calculating this involves some mathematical operations, but it can be simply done using these two formulas:

• The implied probability equals 100 divided by the sum of the odds and 100, multiplied by 100, if the odds are positive.
• If the odds are negative (ignoring the minus sign from the odds number): The implied probability is calculated by (Odds/(Odds + 100)) * 100.

What is the suggested likelihood of either Boston College or Notre Dame emerging as the victors in this game? Upon computing the formulas, we arrive at the following conclusion:

• Boston College: 100 / (450 + 100) * 100 equals 18.1%
• Notre Dame: 500 out of 600 is 83.3%

The odds already suggest Notre Dame to be the probable winner, and the implied probability underscores this even more. Although BC could potentially upset the game, the odds are not in their favor. Keep this in mind when looking for potential underdogs.

Figure out returns from sports betting odds

It might take some time to get used to determining potential returns from the odds board, however, there are formulas to help. The formulas differ based on the direction of the odds.

• Potential profit equals the amount of wager multiplied by the odds divided by 100, if the odds are positive.
• If the odds are negative (excluding the minus sign), the potential profit can be calculated by dividing the amount of wager by (odds/100).

Let’s revisit the concept of a moneyline bet in an NFL game to understand how it works. Consider a hypothetical NFL matchup where the odds range is significantly narrower:

New York Giants +110

Chicago Bears -130

Assuming we choose to place a $100 bet on the Bears game, this is how the potential return would appear from both sides:

• Giants: $100 multiplied by (110/100) equals $110.
• Bears: $100 divided by (130 divided by 100) equals $76.92.

You should never base your betting decisions entirely on the potential return. However, grasping the overall risk-to-reward ratio can assist in putting your wagering choices into the right context.

Importance of line shopping

Although the sports betting odds and lines might appear similar across top Illinois betting apps, it doesn’t imply that the numbers will consistently be identical. The odds available to the public can be influenced by numerous factors, including pricing inefficiencies and market activity.

While it’s fine to have one or two preferred sportsbooks, it’s crucial to make a habit of comparing to find the best odds. In today’s competitive market, spending the time to look for potential differences in odds is definitely worth it.

In Illinois, DraftKings might propose one price on a major favorite, while FanDuel might present a more attractive line, for instance. This may not appear to be a significant disparity initially, but it can indeed accumulate over an extended period.

Potential sucker bets

Your preferred sportsbooks are not going to explicitly flag a sucker bet. Moreover, a strategy that works for you might not work as well for others. So, how can we identify which bets are sucker bets? Here are some crucial areas where you need to be careful.

Parlays, pleasers and teasers

These three bet types can be grouped together because they all involve multiple outcomes on one betting slip. As previously shown in our discussion on parlays, the more selections you make, the less likely you are to be correct on all of them.

Bettors can modify the spread in one direction or another for two or more results when placing pleaser and teaser bets. Although this gives bettors some additional control, it still necessitates multiple results going in your favor to achieve a winning bet.

Placing multi-leg bets can make a series of games more thrilling. If you choose to bet on a small number of teams, such as two or three, your odds of winning are fairly reasonable. However, you should be cautious not to be enticed into placing large bets in pursuit of victory.

Huge moneyline favorites

Many believe that betting on the favorite on the moneyline is a guaranteed win. While it’s true that the underdog faces a significant challenge to cause an upset, it’s still possible. Once the two teams take to the field, the outcome is unpredictable.

If you bet on significant moneyline favorites, you may have more wins than losses. However, the returns are not substantial. For instance, a $100 bet on a moneyline favorite at odds of -450 will yield a return of $22.22.

Though not dreadful, consider the scenario where the unexpected occurs and the major underdog emerges victorious. Correct, you’ve lost $100 on what you believed was a guaranteed win. If the risk-reward ratio is not logical in the long run, it could turn out to be a foolish bet.

Unrealistic props, futures and live bets

Scrolling through these betting categories will unveil some potentially lucrative outcomes. Typically encountered in bets offering a multitude of options, there’s a justifiable explanation as to why the odds are exceptionally high.

This is due to the slim likelihood of a particular event occurring. To imagine bets of this nature, consider the Super Bowl odds for the least successful team in the league or a bet on a player, who hardly ever plays, scoring two goals in an NHL match. Feel free to dream if you wish, but avoid spending a significant amount of money on it.

Spreads that don’t make sense

Let’s start with a significant caution: Predicting point spreads is not easy. The professionals at legal and regulated sportsbooks are skilled at their jobs, making it challenging to consistently determine the correct side to place your bets on.

So, when does the ‘sucker’ aspect become relevant? In two scenarios. Firstly, when the spread initially appears illogical, for instance, an NFL team of lower caliber being favored by a field goal. If the line remains unaltered throughout the week, the book is attempting to communicate a message.

Paying attention and investigating further is advisable rather than instantly presuming you’re correct. Furthermore, this concept is applicable in the feared one-point spread scenario. If you’re unable to locate a contest at 1.5 points and wish to wager, consider the moneyline as it may offer superior value.

Sports you don’t know anything about

Branching out and learning to bet on new sports is perfectly acceptable, but avoid diving in headfirst immediately. You may experience beginner’s luck, but it won’t be a long-term situation.

If you’re completely invested in a sport you’re clueless about, it’s time to pause and evaluate the situation. To put it bluntly, it’s like burning your money. Considering that most sensible people wouldn’t consider doing so, it’s likely a good time to reconsider.

When you start betting on a new sport, it’s advisable to start with small amounts and prepare for some losses. If you find that the sport suits you and you start to succeed, you can always raise your bets later. Unfortunately, some people deplete their accounts before they realize this.

Are there times when a sucker bet makes sense?

In all the examples we’ve explored, there are appropriate times and places for their use. For instance, an NFL Sunday could be livened up with a parlay ticket, while an NBA betting night could become more entertaining with a teaser or pleaser.

On a college football Saturday, it might make sense to occasionally favor big moneyline favorites. Taking a small gamble on a prop bet on a preferred player or a future bet on your local team isn’t the worst situation you could be in.

Remember, betting too much on long odds can rapidly deplete your funds. If you decide to dedicate a small portion of your bankroll – like 2% – strictly for speculative wagers, ensure that your total returns compensate for the expenditure of these bets.

What are the best bets to focus on?

If you choose to allocate a minor portion of your funds for entertainment and the possibility of a substantial win, ensure that the rest of your strategy is well planned. Betting on single games provides an opportunity to establish some consistency.

Thus, they constitute the foundation for numerous successful handicapping strategies. If you’re keen on spreads, concentrate there, though moneylines offering value can be beneficial too. If you have a talent for totals bets, they can also be a good area to focus on.

If you’ve established consistency here and accumulated a bankroll to gamble with, there’s no harm in occasionally indulging in a small sucker bet. Just ensure, once more, that you have sufficient funds to back it up and avoid getting carried away.

What to remember about sucker bets

In sports betting, some wagers are significantly skewed in favor of the house. These types of bets can be considered as sucker bets. If you consistently place these wagers, it’s only a matter of time before your funds are depleted.

To identify a bad bet, pay attention to bets that offer incredible returns for small amounts. Take a moment to reflect. The bookmaker is prepared to offer a big payout because they know the chances of that outcome occurring are extremely low.

Keep an eye on multi-outcome bets, they can provide fun and entertainment, and occasionally, you might even get lucky. However, they should not be considered as a regular source of winning due to their infrequent cash-out rate in comparison to the cost of placing them.

Engaging in speculative activities can be tolerable if you manage your expectations and use minimal amounts. However, those who get enticed into placing significant bets on these stakes will find themselves depositing more frequently than necessary.